The Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization on Non-Motorized Transportation Facilities and Negative Consequences on Lower Income Neighborhoods

Project Abstract

Owning a car is expensive. Between the price of the vehicle, financing costs, insurance, license, registration, taxes, maintenance, repair, fuel, and depreciation, owning one —let alone two — can drain a family’s bank account quickly. According to AAA, for vehicles driven 15,000 miles a year, average car ownership costs were $10,728 a year, or $894 a month in 2022. Low-income families who cannot afford to own a car rely on non-motorized transportation facilities to walk and/or bike for their transportation needs. The U.S. Census Bureau reports show that low incomes commute by biking and walking far more than affluent Americans. But, a combination of climate change and Urbanization (the process through which cities grow, and higher and higher percentages of the population come to live in the city) is threatening the integrity of urban infrastructure including non-motorized transportation facilities. The intergovernmental panel for climate change (IPCC) has certified 0.2°C of increase in mean temperature per decade. Non-motorized transportation is considered as not only one of the major mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions but also as a solution to bring safety, livelihood, and health back to urbanized communities, especially to those who cannot afford owning a vehicle. Urbanization on the other hand, has reduced the ability of land to absorb rainfall through the introduction of hard, impermeable surfaces. This results in an increase in the volume and rate of surface run-off as less water infiltrates into the ground. Urban pluvial flood risk is expected to increase significantly in the future as a result of climate change and demographic shifts: the former is likely to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm events, the driving force of pluvial flooding, while the latter will increase exposure and hence, risk. This proves the importance of identifying facilities that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and urbanization, in order to start adaptations as early as possible. Walking, trails, and bike routes are the non-motorized transportation facilities that are studied in this research. The distance of inundation (distance of trails and bike routes that will be under water), and the maximum depth of water on affected facilities are estimated using the latest climatological and urban hydrological models. The negative consequences of non-motorized transportation facilities inundation on families who rely on such facilities for their transport needs will be studied.

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Universities Involved

University of Delaware

Principle Investigators

Dr. Ardeshir Faghri 

Funding Sources and Amounts

USDOT: $100,000

Start Date

September 1, 2023

Completion Date

September 1, 2024

Expected Research Outcomes & Impacts

New methods will be developed primarily related to the application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in determining the different impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization on non-motorized transportation facilities.  Furthermore, this research project will contribute to the overall body of scientific knowledge in the sense that for the first time the different impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization will be combined to study their effect on vulnerable economic and ethnic communities.  This project has been specifically designed to investigate the combined impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on non-motorized transportation facilities and its detrimental effect on social, economic and ethnic vulnerable communities.  Solutions for mitigation strategies will be recommended.

Subject Areas

Equity, Sustainability, Infrastructure Design and Planning